NHL over/under: How many points will key players score in 2010-11?

Last week, we published the official sports book odds on the 2010-11 NHL season courtesy of Bodog, from the conference champions to the postseason award winners. Now it's time to break things down on an individual basis, featuring the top players from each team and their over/under for point production.

There are some eye-openers in these predictions/prognostications/wagering milestones. Like Zach Parise(notes) of the New Jersey Devils seeing his stats decline with Ilya Kovalchuk(notes) on the team. Like Pavel Datsyuk(notes) rebounding from his slump last season with the Detroit Red Wings. Like Anze Kopitar(notes) potentially taking a dip with the Los Angeles Kings

Check out last season's scoring leaders in the NHL; and now, check out where Bodog set their point totals for the coming season. Who is too high? Who is too low?

Keep in mind that these numbers are, inherently, an enticement to sports book players to make a wager. But they also give one a sense of who's trending up or down this season.

Division by division, the 2010-11 NHL point over/under predictions, with analysis.

Atlantic Division

New Jersey Devils Over/Under Player Points

Ilya Kovalchuk: 82.5

Zach Parise: 78.5

Travis Zajac(notes): 62.5

Patrik Elias(notes): 57.5

New York Islanders Over/Under Player Points

John Tavares(notes): 63.5

Josh Bailey(notes): 41.5

Matt Moulson(notes): 41.5

New York Rangers Over/Under Player Points

Marian Gaborik(notes): 85.5

Alexander Frolov(notes): 59.5

Vaclav Prospal: 52.5

Brandon Dubinsky(notes): 46.5

Philadelphia Flyers Over/Under Player Points

Jeff Carter(notes): 71.5

Mike Richards(notes): 67.5

Nikolai Zherdev(notes): 57.5

Chris Pronger(notes): 50.5

Pittsburgh Penguins Over/Under Player Points

Sidney Crosby(notes): 109.5

Evgeni Malkin(notes): 99.5

Jordan Staal(notes): 51.5

Chris Kunitz(notes): 41.5

OUR TAKE: The offensive numbers for the Devils seem a little low with what Kovalchuk could bring to the top line and to special teams. But maybe that's exactly what they want us to think. We'd take the under on Crosby and the over on Richards. We'll assume that the odds might be off for Propsal at some point.

Northeast Division

Boston Bruins Over/Under Player Points

Marc Savard(notes): 70.5

Nathan Horton(notes): 67.5

Patrice Bergeron(notes): 52.5

Zdeno Chara(notes): 44.5

Tyler Seguin(notes): 41.5

Buffalo Sabres Over/Under Player Points

Derek Roy(notes): 70.5

Tim Connolly(notes): 60.5

Thomas Vanek(notes): 56.5

Tyler Myers(notes): 51.5

Montreal Canadiens Over/Under Player Points

Mike Cammalleri: 64.5

Tomas Plekanec(notes): 61.5

Scott Gomez(notes): 60.5

Brian Gionta(notes): 52.5

Andrei Markov(notes): 42.5

Andrei Kostitsyn(notes): 40.5

P.K. Subban(notes): 40.5

Lars Eller(notes): 38.5

Ottawa Senators Over/Under Player Points

Jason Spezza(notes): 77.5

Daniel Alfredsson(notes): 67.5

Sergei Gonchar(notes): 56.5

Alex Kovalev(notes): 56.5

Mike Fisher(notes): 47.5

Milan Michalek(notes): 41.5

Erik Karlsson(notes): 39.5

Toronto Maple Leafs Over/Under Player Points

Phil Kessel(notes): 63.5

Tyler Bozak(notes): 49.5

Mikhail Grabovski(notes): 45.5

Kris Versteeg(notes): 45.5

Tomas Kaberle(notes): 44.5

Dion Phaneuf(notes): 43.5

Nazem Kadri(notes): 39.5

OUR TAKE: The Canadiens numbers might all be worth a look as "overs" if they can stay healthy this season. We'd also take an over on Gonchar with the Senators and Vanek with the Sabres. Interesting one with Nathan Horton of the Bruins, as the prediction is a new career best in points with his new team.

Southeast Division

Atlanta Thrashers Over/Under Player Points

Nikolai Antropov: 62.5

Rich Peverley(notes): 45.5

Evander Kane(notes): 42.5

Dustin Byfuglien(notes): 31.5

Carolina Hurricanes Over/Under Player Points

Eric Staal(notes): 77.5

Jussi Jokinen(notes): 53.5

Brandon Sutter(notes): 44.5

Tuomo Ruutu(notes): 44.5

Florida Panthers Over/Under Player Points

Stephen Weiss(notes): 60.5

Michael Frolik(notes):  51.5

David Booth(notes): 44.5

Bryan McCabe(notes): 41.5

Tampa Bay Lightning Over/Under Player Points

Steven Stamkos(notes): 92.5

Martin St. Louis(notes): 85.5

Vincent Lecavalier(notes): 71.5

Simon Gagne(notes): 56.5

Washington Capitals Over/Under Player Points

Alexander Ovechkin: 110.5

Nicklas Backstrom(notes): 97.5

Alexander Semin(notes): 75.5

Mike Green(notes): 75.5

OUR TAKE: The Eric Staal prediction seemed a shade low until you realize he's been under 80 points in three of the last four seasons. The Stamkos prediction might point to a dip in his totals. Might love Evandar Kane and the over here; Gagne at just 56.6 is strange, in that lineup. 

Central Division

Chicago Blackhawks Over/Under Player Points

Patrick Kane(notes): 90.5

Jonathan Toews(notes): 74.5

Marian Hossa(notes): 70.5

Duncan Keith(notes): 58.5

Columbus Blue Jackets Over/Under Player Points

Rick Nash(notes) 78.5

Antoine Vermette(notes) 60.5

Kristian Huselius(notes) 59.5

R.J. Umberger(notes) 51.5

Detroit Red Wings Over/Under Player Points

Pavel Datsyuk 83.5

Henrik Zetterberg(notes) 74.5

Johan Franzen(notes) 52.5

Nicklas Lidstrom(notes) 44.5

Mike Modano(notes) 42.5

Nashville Predators Over/Under Player Points

Patric Hornqvist(notes): 53.5

Steve Sullivan(notes): 47.5

Matthew Lombardi(notes): 46.5

Shea Weber(notes): 43.5

St. Louis Blues Over/Under Player Points

T.J. Oshie(notes): 56.5

Brad Boyes(notes): 54.5

Andy McDonald(notes): 52.5

David Perron(notes): 51.5

OUR TAKE: If you own a dog and a house, we'd gladly wager both on Toews and the over. Some real wild cards here: TJ Oshie leading the Blues in points? Matthew Lombardi posting less than 50 points in the pivot for the Predators? Mike Modano cracking 40 with the Red Wings?

Northwest Division

Calgary Flames Over/Under Player Points

Jarome Iginla(notes): 82.5

Olli Jokinen(notes): 52.5

Rene Bourque(notes): 48.5

Alex Tanguay(notes): 48.5

Matt Stajan(notes): 46.5

Mikael Backlund(notes): 37.5

Ian White(notes): 28.5

Colorado Avalanche Over/Under Player Points

Paul Stastny(notes) 77.5

Matt Duchene(notes) 61.5

Peter Mueller(notes) 46.5

Milan Hejduk(notes) 45.5

Edmonton Oilers Over/Under Player Points

Ales Hemsky(notes) 64.5

Dustin Penner(notes) 57.5

Sam Gagner(notes) 52.5

Jordan Eberle(notes) 51.5

Taylor Hall(notes) 47.5

Ryan Whitney(notes) 39.5

Andrew Cogliano(notes) 36.5

Minnesota Wild Over/Under Player Points

Mikko Koivu(notes): 71.5

Martin Havlat(notes): 62.5

Andrew Brunette(notes): 54.5

Guillaume Latendresse(notes): 45.5

Vancouver Canucks Over/Under Player Points

Henrik Sedin(notes): 99.5

Daniel Sedin(notes): 95.5

Ryan Kesler(notes): 71.5

Mason Raymond(notes): 55.5

Alexandre Burrows(notes): 49.5

Mikael Samuelsson(notes): 48.5

Alexander Edler(notes): 44.5

OUR TAKE: Lots of interesting numbers, especially in Edmonton where Eberle is seen as a higher point producer than Hall at the moment. But honestly, the most confounding wager has to be Olli Jokinen and 52.6 points, right?

Pacific Division

Anaheim Ducks Over/Under Player Points

Ryan Getzlaf(notes): 85.5

Corey Perry(notes): 79.5

Bobby Ryan(notes): 64.5

Saku Koivu(notes): 43.5

Dallas Stars Over/Under Player Points

Brad Richards(notes) 77.5

Loui Eriksson(notes) 66.5

Mike Ribeiro(notes) 60.5

Brenden Morrow(notes) 46.5

Los Angeles Kings Over/Under Player Points

Anze Kopitar: 76.5

Drew Doughty(notes): 60.5

Dustin Brown(notes): 58.5

Ryan Smyth(notes): 51.5

Phoenix Coyotes Over/Under Player Points

Wojtek Wolski(notes): 63.5

Shane Doan(notes): 58.5

Ray Whitney(notes): 56.5

Keith Yandle(notes): 38.5

San Jose Sharks Over/Under Player Points

Joe Thornton(notes): 91.5

Dany Heatley(notes): 89.5

Patrick Marleau(notes): 71.5

Joe Pavelski(notes): 61.5

OUR TAKE: We'd pretty much take the under on the entire Coyotes collection, the over on Kopitar and the over on Joe Thornton.  

Related: Ray Whitney, Alex Kovalev, Tyler Seguin, Taylor Hall, Nazem Kadri, Evander Kane, Matt Duchene, John Tavares, Tyler Bozak, P.K. Subban, Jordan Eberle, Erik Karlsson, Tyler Myers, Josh Bailey, Steven Stamkos, Drew Doughty, David Perron, Mikael Backlund, Brandon Sutter, Lars Eller, Sam Gagner, Patrick Kane, Mason Raymond, Patric Hornqvist, Rich Peverley, Matt Moulson, David Booth, Paul Stastny, Alexander Edler, Mike Modano, Michael Frolik, Peter Mueller, Joe Pavelski, Jonathan Toews, Phil Kessel, Nicklas Backstrom, Mikhail Grabovski, Jordan Staal, Kris Versteeg, Brandon Dubinsky, Keith Yandle, Guillaume Latendresse, Andrew Cogliano, T.J. Oshie, Anze Kopitar, Bobby Ryan, Johan Franzen, Mike Green, Sidney Crosby, Dustin Byfuglien, Wojtek Wolski, Travis Zajac, Evgeni Malkin, Rene Bourque, Dustin Penner, Shea Weber, Patrice Bergeron, Corey Perry, Mike Richards, Ryan Getzlaf, Zach Parise, Dustin Brown, Jeff Carter, Andrei Kostitsyn, Dion Phaneuf, Eric Staal, Thomas Vanek, Nathan Horton, Ryan Kesler, Chris Kunitz, Milan Michalek, Nikolay Zherdev, Ian White, Alexander Semin, Matt Stajan, Duncan Keith, Matthew Lombardi, Rick Nash, Tomas Plekanec, Ryan Whitney, Jussi Jokinen, Stephen Weiss, Ilya Kovalchuk, Derek Roy, Jason Spezza, Tuomo Ruutu, R.J. Umberger, Ales Hemsky, Mikko Koivu, Antoine Vermette, Alexander Frolov, Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Brad Boyes, Mikael Samuelsson, Dany Heatley, Marian Gaborik, Andy McDonald, Andrei Markov, Brian Gionta, Kristian Huselius, Martin Havlat, Brad Richards, Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin, Brenden Morrow, Tim Connolly, Mike Fisher, Mike Ribeiro, Simon Gagne, Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis, Scott Gomez, Tomas Kaberle, Milan Hejduk, Alex Tanguay, Zdeno Chara, Patrick Marleau, Marian Hossa, Joe Thornton, Olli Jokinen, Marc Savard, Jarome Iginla, Steve Sullivan, Andrew Brunette, Patrik Elias, Shane Doan, Saku Koivu, Daniel Alfredsson, Bryan McCabe, Sergei Gonchar, Nicklas Lidstrom, Chris Pronger, Ryan Smyth, Loui Eriksson, Anaheim Ducks, Atlanta Thrashers, Boston Bruins, Buffalo Sabres, Carolina Hurricanes, Calgary Flames, Chicago Blackhawks, Columbus Blue Jackets, Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, Detroit Red Wings, Edmonton Oilers, Florida Panthers, Los Angeles Kings, Minnesota Wild, Montreal Canadiens, Nashville Predators, New Jersey Devils, New York Islanders, New York Rangers, Ottawa Senators, Philadelphia Flyers, Phoenix Coyotes, Pittsburgh Penguins, San Jose Sharks, St. Louis Blues, Tampa Bay Lightning, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vancouver Canucks, Washington Capitals

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Who are the least valuable players in the NHL, according to study?

As hockey fans, we're constantly debating the meaning of player value. How much is a player worth contractually? How important are his stats? Is the "most valuable" player really the player with the most value to his team?

Canadian Business has made a bold attempt at ascertaining hockey-related value with Puck Money, a multi-faceted look at "the value and performance of NHL players" in the last year: "The Puck Money rankings determine not the best players in the NHL but the players who play far above their monetary worth, giving the best value to their team and their fans."

In his overview of the projects findings, Mark Spector of Sportsnet found NHL executives speaking about young players being the essential bargains in a salary-capped League. You can see that in their lists of forwards, defensemen and goaltenders, with Nicklas Backstrom(notes) of the Washington Capitals (22), Duncan Keith(notes) of the Chicago Blackhawks (27) and Jonathan Quick(notes) (24) of the Los Angeles Kings topping each ranking. Loui Eriksson(notes) of the Dallas Stars, 25, was ranked second for all forwards.

But while Puck Money identifies the best values, it also identifies the least valuable players, through its methodology. (A deeply flawed methodology, but we'll get to that later.)

Who do you think are the least valuable players in the NHL, based on their salaries and their output? Puck Money wanted to identify them.

Here are the 15 least valuable forwards in the NHL, according to Puck Money. Points and time on ice factor into the evaluation; plus/minus, though listed, did not.

The methodology:

Since a forward is paid to score points, we've taken salary and divided it by seasonal point total to arrive at a dollar-per-point total. It's that simple. The player with the lowest dollar figure in our estimation offers the best value; the player with the highest, the least. Only those players who played 60 or more games of the 82-game season are ranked.

This is how they break down by position, for each bottom 5:

Least Valuable Centers

5. Eric Belanger(notes) (119)

4. Sam Gagner(notes) (121)

3. Johan Hecht (124)

2. Jason Spezza(notes) (131)

1. Jason Arnott(notes) (133)

Least Valuable Right Wings

5. Martin Erat(notes) (125)

4. Brad Boyes(notes) (127)

3. Danny Briere(notes) (132)

2. Brian Gionta(notes) (135)

1. J.P. Dumont(notes) (136)

Least Valuable Left Wings

5. Scott Hartnell(notes) (128)

4. Thomas Vanek(notes) (129)

3. Ryan Malone(notes) (130)

2. Jason Blake(notes) (134)

1. Paul Kariya(notes) (137)

Back to the methodology: No, it's not "that simple."

It doesn't take into account the total value of the player, from defense to intangibles. It doesn't deal with playoff performance; who in their right mind is labeling Michael Cammalleri(notes) as one of the least valuable players in the NHL after last postseason for the Montreal Canadiens?

Worst of all: It doesn't take injuries or recent history into account. Yes, Jason Arnott was limited to 46 points last season after being concussed. The previous season, he had 33 goals in 67 games. He wasn't worth the money because someone else injured him? 

Thomas Vanek had 40 goals in 2008-09 with the Buffalo Sabres, including 20 (!) on the power play. That's value this methodology chooses not to consider.

Here are the 15 least valuable defensemen in the NHL, according to Puck Money. The categories include games played, dollars per games played, points, dollars per point and time on ice. Plus/minus, which plays a huge role in the evaluation, is not listed:

Here is the methodology:

The defenceman's job is to prevent goals from being scored. For this reason, best and worst value picks are chosen by first isolating for best/worst +/-. Then the players are compared by salary. Our best value picks have the best combination of lowest cost-per-minute on the ice (annual salary divided by total minutes played) and the highest plus/minus number. Our worst value picks are just the opposite. Only defenders who played 60 or more games of the 82-game season are ranked.

Outside of Hal Gill(notes), who redeemed himself in the postseason, this isn't a list that's all that disputable. (If you're wondering where Wade Redden, formerly of the New York Rangers, falls on the list, he's No. 16 from the bottom.)

But again ... the methodology. Plus/Minus is one of the most superficial stats in professional sports. Consider this: Jan Hejda(notes) of the Columbus Blue Jackets is playing his man perfectly. There's a shot on goal and goalie Steve Mason(notes) whiffs on the save. If it's 5-on-5, Hejda gets a minus-1, despite doing nothing to have earned it.

And that's how we're determining his value?

Speaking of goalies, here are the 10 least valuable netminders in the NHL, according to Puck Money. Categories are dollars-per-minute-on-ice and dollars-per-save minus dollars-per-shot:

The methodology:

The most valuable goalie is the one whose cost per goal allowed ($/save - $/shot allowed) is the lowest. But to correct for this resulting in the lowest paid goalie automatically being the best value, we also took GAA into account. To be considered, goalies had to have played at least 35 games of the 82-game season.

This might be the least debatable group, because outside of arguing over the quality of the teams in front of these goalies (especially in J.S. Giguere's and Mathieu Garon's(notes) case) a cost-per-goals equation is one of the only places to take this argument.

Puck Money offers some insights. There's no question that a player like Craig Anderson(notes) of the Colorado Avalanche offers a better bang for the buck than, say, Niklas Backstrom(notes) of the Minnesota Wild does these days.

But this is just an elementary approach meant to stir up conversation. It's superficial at a time when hockey stats are being revolutionized by sites like Behind the Net and the number-crunchers who play fantasy hockey. 

We'd love read a dissertation one day on how Jussi Jokinen(notes) (No. 34, 65 points) has more "value" to his team and the fans than Alex Ovechkin(notes) (No. 48, 109 points), simply because the Washington Capitals have to pay their star player/franchise face/box office draw much, much more than the Carolina Hurricanes have to pay their second-liner. Or how, by any measure other than this one, the St. Louis Blues get more value from T.J. Oshie(notes) (No. 62) than the Detroit Red Wings do from Henrik Zetterberg(notes) (No. 65). 

But hey, at least Loui Eriksson fans will be happy with Puck Money. So someone wins.

Related: Steve Mason, Jonathan Quick, Paul Kariya, Nicklas Backstrom, Jason Blake, Sam Gagner, Jan Hejda, Niklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie, Alex Ovechkin, Loui Eriksson, Thomas Vanek, Jussi Jokinen, Duncan Keith, Ryan Malone, Jason Spezza, Michael Cammalleri, Craig Anderson, Brad Boyes, Martin Erat, Henrik Zetterberg, Scott Hartnell, Eric Belanger, Brian Gionta, Mathieu Garon, J.P. Dumont, Danny Briere, Hal Gill, Jason Arnott, Buffalo Sabres, Carolina Hurricanes, Chicago Blackhawks, Columbus Blue Jackets, Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, Detroit Red Wings, Los Angeles Kings, Minnesota Wild, Montreal Canadiens, New York Rangers, St. Louis Blues, Washington Capitals

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